Warm Wishes to You and Yours...

Ooohhhh you all must know that the city is just bustling with all of the neighborhood regulars as well as tourists stopping in to shop, and we are loving it!

A nice place to stop by and have a fabulous breakfast/lunch/supper/dinner would be the Montage Hotel on Beverly Drive.

Mr. Ali Kasikci, Managing Director, is one of the visionaries that helped shape and define what we know as the City of Beverly Hills. Mr. Kasikci is one of the most brilliant men I've ever met in the City of Beverly Hills. This man that takes care of business! If he puts his stamp on it, believe me, it is first class, all the way!http://www.montagebeverlyhills.com/

Stop on by the Montage Beverly Hills.

This is one stop you will treasure for a lifetime.

Happy Holidays to you and yours.

Love, C

Simply Chill in Beverly Hills...

It is such a cool, crisp sunny day here in Beverly Hills. They say that it never rains in Southern California, but it is supposed to rain later this evening, but who cares?! There are so many great places that one can stop in and grab a nosh to eat, along with a nice glass of wine, or a hot cup of cocoa, and return a few phone calls and just chill.



A few of my favorite spots are:



House of AN:: Crustacean:

http://www.anfamily.com/portalpage.html

The An Family, which consists of 3 generations of women, have created a first class experience in Vietnamese culinary with a French twist. An experience you won’t forget. Please pop in and visit for lunch and/or dinner.

IlPastaio -http://www.giacominodrago.com/pastaio.htm

– Everything that Giacomino Drago touches turns to gold. The Drago Brothers have 4 fabulous dining establishments in Beverly Hills. The wine, seafood, pasta and desserts are divine! Choose any of these 4 Italian Restaurants and you will be very very satisfied.







Il Fornaio Beverly Hills

http://www.ilfornaio.com/?page=138&restaurant_id=3143

An Authentic Italian restaurant and bakery. They have an in-house pastry chef who makes the most delectable goodies, and they open early for breakfast lunch and dinner. They even have gelato.















Luxe Hotel Rodeo Drive -

http://www.luxehotelrodeodrive.com/?chebs=gl_luxerd-



Café 360 is great for breakfast, lunch and dinner, specializing in California cuisine with a European twist – it’s lovely.







XI'AN Beverly Hills –http://www.xian90210.com/

Hands down, this restaurant has the best Chinese cuisine in Beverly Hills.

Go for Lunch or dinner, and you’ll love it.



If you get a chance visit these spots and let me know what you think.



Love, C

The mobile data apocalypse, and what it means to you

The mobile industry is now completing a huge shift in its attitude toward mobile data. Until pretty recently, the prevailing attitude among mobile operators was that data was a disappointment. It had been hyped for a decade, and although there were some successes, it had never lived up to the huge growth expectations that were set at the start of the decade. Most operators viewed it as a nice incremental add-on rather than the driver of their businesses.

But in the last year or so, the attitude has shifted dramatically from "no one is using mobile data" to "oh my God, there's so much demand for mobile data that it'll destroy the network." A lot of this attitude shift was caused by the iPhone, which has indeed overloaded some mobile networks. But there's also a general uptick in data usage from various sources, and the rate of growth seems to be accelerating.

Extrapolating the trend, most telecom analyst firms are now producing mobile data traffic forecasts that look something like this:




The forecasts are driven by a couple of simple observations:

--Smartphones produce much more data traffic than traditional mobile phones. Cisco estimates that a single smartphone produces as much data traffic as 40 traditional feature phones. So converting 10 million people from feature phones to smartphones is like adding 390 million new feature phone users, in terms of impact on the data network. The more popular smartphones get, the busier the network becomes.

--A notebook PC generates far more traffic than a smartphone. According to Cicso, a single notebook computer generates the same data traffic as 450 feature phones. As notebook users convert to 3G-enabled netbooks and add 3G dongles to their computers, they dramatically increase the data traffic load on the network.

You can read Cisco's analysis here.

This becomes especially interesting when you look at the forecasts for growth of 3G-equipped netbooks and notebooks. Mobile operators in many countries have started subsidizing sales of those devices if you pay for a data service plan. It's an attractive deal for many people. Say your son or daughter is going off to college. Do you buy them a regular notebook computer and also pay for the DSL service to their apartment, or do you buy them a 3G data plan for about the same price as DSL and get the netbook for free?

The forecasting firm In-Stat recently predicted that by 2013, 30% of all notebook computers will be sold through mobile operators and bundled with 3G data plans (link). Notebook computer sales worldwide are about 150 million units a year, so that's 45 million new 3G notebooks a year -- or the data equivalent of adding 20 billion more feature phones to the network every year.

Jeepers.

These forecasts are producing a behind-the-scenes panic among mobile network operators. The consensus is that there's no way their networks can grow quickly enough to support all that data traffic. There are several reasons:

--They can't afford to build that much infrastructure.

--Even if they could afford the buildout, they won't have enough bandwidth available to carry all that data, even with 4G.

--Traffic-shaping techniques like tiered pricing and usage caps can't restrain usage growth enough to save them, because

--Fear of losing customers to a competitor will force them to continue to subsidize sales of 3G dongles and offer relatively generous caps in their data plans.

There are a number of projections that show the operators losing money on wireless data a few years from now, as costs continue to increase faster than revenue. The danger isn't so much that they will all go broke, but they're very afraid that they'll turn into zero-profit utilities.

Many operators now seem to be counting on WiFi as their ultimate savior. The theory is that if they can offload enough of the data traffic from their networks to WiFi base stations connected to wired networks, then maybe other measures like 4G, usage caps, and aggressive improvements to the network will let them squeak through.

It's an ironic situation. For a long time the mobile operators thought of themselves as the future lords of data communication. All devices would have 3G connections, the thinking went, and the fixed-line data carriers such as Comcast and BT would fade away just like the fixed-line voice companies are doing.

Instead, the new consensus is that we're moving to a world where the fixed-line vendors will be expected to carry most consumer data traffic for the foreseeable future. They'll provide your wireless connectivity at home and work, while the mobile network will fill in the gaps when you're on the move. The area of disagreement, of course, is who will get the majority of the access revenue. We'll let the fixed-line and mobile operators argue over that one; I want to talk about some of the other impacts of this weird new hybrid wireless world that we're heading into.

(I touched on some of this in my post on net neutrality a couple of weeks ago (link), but I want to go into more detail here.)


The brave new world of scarce mobile bandwidth

Built-in WiFi is now good. For a long time many mobile operators resisted selling smartphones with WiFi built in. They viewed WiFi networks as competitors for customer control, and wanted to prevent usage of them. Now that they see WiFi as their savior, the operators are suddenly encouraging its inclusion in phones. Don't be surprised if in the near future it becomes impossible to get a subsidized price for any smartphone that doesn't have WiFi built in.


Traffic shaping is a fact of life, and a likely source of irritation. Many mobile operators are starting to limit the performance of applications that consume the most data bandwidth (today that's mostly video and file sharing). It's already being done today, and in most cases the operators won't even tell you they're doing it, unless the government requires them to. Certain apps will just communicate more slowly, or fail altogether, when the network gets busy.

There are a couple of exceptions where operators have been more public about their traffic shaping activity. The 3 network in the UK recently announced restrictions (link). And O2 in the UK has given details on exactly which applications it restricts in its home wireless data service (link).

Current traffic shaping hasn't generated a firestorm of complaints from the average customer (as distinct from net neutrality advocates), in part because it is very hard for users to tell why a website runs slowly on a particular day. But as mobile traffic continues to increase, operators are going to find that it's cheaper to ratchet up the restrictions bit by bit rather than pay for more capacity. Eventually people will notice, and I worry that we'll end up in a situation in which the operators carefully balance out how much they can piss off their customers without creating an outright revolt. It's a lot like the way the US airline industry operates today, and it's a miserable experience for everyone involved.

What to do. There are better ways to shape traffic. I think operators should give customers more information on how much data they're using at any given time, so they can manage it themselves. Then let them make an informed decision about which apps they'll use their bandwidth on. It would be relatively simple to create an on-screen widget showing how much data is being transferred at any time, just like the signal strength and battery life indicators on today's phones.

It's also possible to create some APIs that would tell a website how much bandwidth is available to it, so the developer could adjust its features accordingly. This idea is being tossed around between web companies and operators, but I don't know how much is actually being done about it.

Combine those changes with usage-based pricing (my next point) and customers will shape their own traffic. Then there won't be any need for covert manipulation of the network.


Say hello to capped data plans. Completely unlimited wireless data plans are not sustainable long term; the economics of them just don't work. And in fact, virtually no data plans today are completely uncapped; there is almost always some fine print about the maximum amount of traffic allowed before surcharges kick in or the user is tossed off the network.

Some people are saying that the operators should go back to charging by the byte, and in some parts of the world (particularly Asia), there is a long history of per-byte pricing. But the experience in most of the world has been that per-byte pricing makes users so nervous about their expenses that they won't use data services at all.

(DoCoMo in Japan has an interesting hybrid approach (link) in which it charges per-packet until the user hits a maximum charge of about $70 per month. Additional usage beyond that cap is free. So that's capped pricing rather than capped usage. This reduces customer fear of accidentally running up a gigantic bill, but I wonder how DoCoMo prevents power users from flooding the network with traffic. Maybe there's a second, hidden cap on total usage.)

What to do. I think the right answer in most of the world is going to be flat-rate data plans in which there's a clearly-communicated cap, with tiered charges beyond that. The cap will need to be set at a level that moderate users won't ever reach, so they don't become gun-shy about data. To alleviate the fear of accidentally running up a huge bill, there will also need to be an on-device meter showing how much of the user's monthly data allocation has been used (just telling them to go look at a website is not enough; it should be on-screen). I'm told that on-screen meters like this are already being offered on netbooks by some European operators.

Today most operators are pretty up-front about communicating the data limits when a computer is connected to a mobile network. But many of them are still deceptive toward smartphone customers. AT&T's Smartphone Personal service, for example, promises the following for $35 a month:

Included Data: Unlimited; Additional data: $0 per MB

Sounds pretty straightforward. No asterisks, no fine print. But if you click on the terms of service (link), you'll find a long list of banned application types, followed by this general provision:

"AT&T reserves the right to (i) deny, disconnect, modify and/or terminate Service, without notice, to anyone...whose usage adversely impacts its wireless network or service levels or hinders access to its wireless network... and (ii) otherwise protect its wireless network from harm, compromised capacity or degradation in performance."

In other words, if the network is getting slow, they can do anything to your service, at any time, without notice.

There is also a hidden 5G per month maximum:

"If you are on a data plan that does not include a monthly MB/GB allowance and additional data usage rates, you agree that AT&T has the right to impose additional charges if you use more than 5 GB in a month."

This is not just an American problem. Orange in the UK calls its iPhone data service "unlimited," but there's a footnote saying that "unlimited" actually means 750 megabytes a month, a surprisingly low cap compared to AT&T's.

If we're ever going to collectively manage mobile network overload, we'll all need to be much more up-front about the way it operates and what a particular service plan will and won't do.


Is residential 3G really a good idea? Especially in Europe, it's common for operators to tell people that they should ditch their DSL or cable modem at home and replace it with a 3G modem. That works out well only when the network has excess capacity. As soon as the networks start to get congested, the operators will need to offload traffic to residential WiFi routers connected to DSL or cable. If those residential fixed lines have been removed, the operators can't offload.

What to do. I think this one is going to be self-limiting. Once 3G bandwidth gets scarce, the operators will realize that they can get a lot more revenue feeding data to smartphones than to PCs. The math works like this: With a given amount of bandwidth, you could support a single notebook computer and charge about $50 a month, or support 11 smartphones at $30 a month each. Hmm, $330 a month versus $50, seems like a pretty easy decision.

But there are two circumstances in which it would make sense for the operators to keep subsidizing PC sales:

1. If smartphone sales plateau. If this happens, eventually the network will catch up with demand and then there will be excess capacity for PCs; or

2. If operators can route most of the actual data traffic from PCs through WiFi connected to landlines. In this case they could sell you data plans knowing that you won't affect their networks much. That brings us to the next point...


Operators have a huge vested interest in unlocking WiFi access points. Most WiFi access points today are encrypted and inaccessible to other devices in the area. I think there's a strong financial incentive for mobile operators to work with fixed-line access companies to get those access points unlocked. The benefit for the wireless companies is clear -- the more WiFi points they can talk to, the fewer cell towers they need to build. But the benefits for the fixed-line operators are much less clear. Why should they help the mobile operators with their bandwidth crunch?

What to do. The ideal situation would be a revenue-sharing deal in which the operators share some money with the fixed-line companies to encourage them to open up access to their networks. In this scenario, your DSL or cable provider would give you a WiFi router that has been pre-configured to automatically and securely share excess bandwidth with mobile devices in the area. Your own traffic would get priority, but any extra capacity could be shared automatically. The benefit for you as a consumer would be a free router, and/or a lower DSL bill as the cable company passes along some of the revenue it gets from the mobile operators.

The effectiveness of this sort of approach is going to depend on the relative cost for an operator of subsidizing a set of WiFi base stations in an area, versus the cost of installing more wireless capacity. I wonder about weird scenarios like a DSL provider auctioning off excess WiFi capacity to wireless operators in a particularly congested area.


Femtocells for the rest of us. Another very logical step for the operators is to start pushing femtocells aggressively. (Femtocells are radios that work like a short-range cell tower, but are the size of a WiFi router. You connect one to your DSL or cable line, and it offloads traffic from the wireless network. Link)

What to do. Today femtocells are generally sold as signal boosters in areas with marginal wireless coverage. But in the future I think it may make sense for operators to give away femtocells, or at least subsidize them, for customers who live in areas where the data network is congested.


What it all means: Fixed-mobile convergence with a twist

If you step back from the details, the big picture is that we really need a single integrated data network that encompasses mobile and fixed connections, and switches between them seamlessly. People have been talking about this sort of thing for years (check out the Wikipedia article on fixed-mobile convergence here), but the focus has generally been on handing voice calls between WiFi and cellular. That's hard to do technologically (because you can't interrupt a voice conversation during the handover for more than a fraction of a second). Besides, it doesn't solve a significant customer problem -- the voice network isn't the thing that's overloaded.

The place where we could really, really use fixed-mobile convergence is in data. I'm worried, though, that the intense competition between the wireless and wired worlds will make it difficult and slow to achieve the coordination needed. This might be a useful place for government to put its attention. Not in terms of regulating the integrated network into existence (that would be the kiss of death), but to grease the skids for cooperation between the mobile and fixed-line worlds.


Just one more thing...

Everything above is based on the assumption that those Cisco and analyst forecasts are correct. But Cisco has a vested interest in hyping fear of the data apocalypse (Emergency! Buy more routers now!!), and my general rule about tech analysts is that every time they all agree on something you should bet against them.

There is a genuine crunch in mobile data capacity going on at the moment; you can read about network outages caused by the iPhone even today. And I can assure you that for every network failure you read about, there are dozens of other failures and near-failures that don't get reported. Many wireless data networks are very stressed.

And the situation will get worse.

But there's no such thing as infinite demand. At some point the growth of mobile data will slow down, and it's very important to try to estimate how and when that'll happen, so we as an industry do not overshoot too badly. The question isn't whether the growth forecasts are wrong, it's when they will be wrong.

I'll write about that next week...

The OS is always greener...

In a report from a developer meeting, Nokia officials said they're moving to Maemo Linux as the OS for their high-end smartphones. That resulted in an entertaining little obituary in the Register by Andrew Orlowski (link). But then later in the day Nokia clarified that "we remain firmly committed to Symbian as our smartphone platform of choice" (link). That in turn led to a lively online debate about what Nokia actually said, and the challenges that Finnish people face when speaking English (check the comments here).

It's just one more chapter in the long and exquisitely awkward saga of Nokia and Symbian. From the outside I can't tell exactly what's going on at Nokia, and it's possible that Nokia itself doesn't know. It's a very large company, and various groups there can have conflicting agendas.

But I can't believe that there would be all of these repeated reports, leaks, and artfully-worded partial denials unless Nokia were de-emphasizing Symbian in the long run. The most prominent theory, which I believe based on things I hear through back channels, is that Nokia does indeed intend to move to Maemo at the high end. And, as we all know, in computing whatever's at the high end eventually ends up in the mainstream.

I'm sure Nokia has valid technical reasons for moving to another OS. Nokia has said that there are some things it wants to do with its smartphones that Symbian OS can't support. But still the change worries me. Nokia's biggest problem in the smartphone market isn't the OS it uses, it's the user experience and services layer in its smartphones. Moving to a new OS does almost nothing to fix that. It does force a lot of engineers to work on writing a lot of low-level infrastructure code that won't create visible value for users. It also forces Nokia to maintain two separate code bases, which will chew up even more engineers.

All of that investment could have gone into crafting some great solutions, the things that are the only way to pull customers away from Apple and RIM. At a minimum, it's a terrible shame that Nokia spent so much time and money on an OS that couldn't take it into the future.

(By the way, this focus on the OS doesn't apply only to Nokia. I hear a lot of buzz from operators and handset companies who believe that if they just pick the right OS they'll automatically end up with great smartphones. Android is the latest white knight for most of them, but of course Nokia's not going to depend on a technology from Google.)

There's an old joke in the tech industry about rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic. I don't think that applies to Nokia because they haven't hit an iceberg by any means. But I do have a mental picture of a sweet old lady who spends all her time every day cleaning the bathroom while the food is spoiling in the refrigerator.

Brotherhood Crusade Pioneer of African American Achievement Awards Dinner - 2009

Beverly Hills was all a glow with ladies and gentlemen eloquently dressed in tailored business suits and lovely gowns. There was so much positive energy floating throughout the room and it was invigorating.

The Brotherhood Crusade, a non-profit organization, http://brotherhoodcrusade.org/ annually selects an individual that best demonstrates the spirit of the founding father of the Brotherhood Crusade, Walter Bremond. Everyone was please to know that María de la Soledad Teresa O'Brien, CNN’s anchor and special correspondent, was this year’s (11/2009-11/2010) recipient of the Pioneer of African American Achievement Award. We know her as Soledad O'Brien.

Soledad O’Brien fittingly embodies the very words written by Mr. Bremond many years ago:
“We recognize it is to our benefit to participate in the architect of this country, because our need for inclusion grows out of our perspective, even in a place where seldom we are given the credit for our contributions.
Our people's perspective, which grows out of our duality of existence, which is both African and American, causes us to embrace and work towards a workable solution of peace. It is our belief in God that keeps us focus on the unknown and doing well towards our fellow human being. The African essence tell us that we are a communal people who must take care of our own and the American experience tell us we must hasten.“

A humanitarian, Ms. O’Brien has consistently demonstrated the desire to effectively open dialogue regarding race relations in America, via documentaries that demonstrate the problems that African Americans and Latino Americans are facing and viable solutions to the problems. Soledad not only educates her audience, she provides an avenue for which they too, can assist in correcting the issues at hand.

I was able to interview Ms. O’Brien shortly before the evening’s affair got started, on the red carpet.

Carla Thomas:
“Soledad, please tell me, while filming the documentary, Black in America 2, you got a chance to work with Malaak Compton-Rock, and take 30 children from a community in New Jersey to Soweto, South Africa. How was that experience?”

Soledad O’Brien:
“It was wonderful. I didn’t know Malaak Compton-Rock until I started on this documentary. Malaak is the CEO of StyleWorks, a non-profit organization that assists women with hair and wardrobes, helping them go from welfare to work. She is also a Mother of 2 beautiful girls. I actually met her in South Africa. Malaak is so organized and had this incredible book with everything planned – she is actively involved, not just standing on the sidelines directing. Malaak also spearheaded Journey for Change: Empowering Youth Through Global Service. "

Malaak Compton-Rock is the Founder and Director of The Angel Rock Project :: Projects.

Carla Thomas:
“While filming the Black in America 2 documentary, you actually spent time with the children. You were so sincere. I was especially touched by the teenager that loved Dr. Maya Angelou. Can you tell me how you felt when you met Dr. Maya Angelou?”

Soledad O’Brien (smiling):
“The first time that I met her was years ago, when I was working with Kim Bondy, (http://www.nola.com/tv/index.ssf/2009/10/uno_professor_kim_bondy_uses_i.html ) who was my Executive Producer at the time – and Maya Angelou was very kind. Dr. Angelou said to me, “I’m proud of you Soledad, look how you’ve turned out!” - And I was so honored to know that Maya Angelou felt that way !”
Yes, Soledad we too, are proud of you. Keep on rising!

C

Project Runway at the Getty

"As you know in fashion, One week you're in and the next, you're out." says Heidi Klum.
The panel of judges, Cindy Crawford, Nina Garcia and Cynthia Rowley shook up the house on the 6th season's (12th episode) of Project Runway.
There are five finalists - three will make it, and two will be out.

Location: The Getty Museum

The challenge?
To find inspiration in, as Heidi Klum put it, " An iconic place, rich in culture with impressive views."

Who was up to the challenge?

Irina Shabayeva, Carol Hanna Whitfield, Althea Harper and Christopher Straub and Gordana Gehlhausen.

Goal: Win this final round to get to New York's Fashion Week and present their 12 pieces @ Bryant Park.

I tell you, Irina, Carol Hanna and Althea did the darn thing!

Those three ladies are headed to Fashion Week New York!

http://nymag.com/fashion/fashionshows/schedule/08.html

The panel discussion after the viewing of Episode 12, gave us even more insight into the mind/thought process of some architects/ fashion designers/ fashion writers.

All of the above information/ artwork/ photos are from the two resources listed below. I'd like to thank Heidi Klum, Tim Gunn, The Project Runway staff, Lifetime Television and the staff at the Getty Museum for your professionalism, kindess and an outstanding event.

Lifetime - Project Runway - www.mylifetime.com/on-tv/shows/project-runway

Getty Museum - www.getty.edu/

Which mobile apps are making good money?

At a conference the other day, several industry executives were on a panel discussing mobile application stores. There were representatives from Yahoo, Qualcomm, Motorola, and an independent application store. Someone from the audience asked a simple question: "Other than entertainment apps, name three mobile applications that are monetizing well." (In other words, apps that have a good business model and are making good money.)

The interesting thing was that none of the panelists had a very satisfying answer. The Qualcomm person cited navigation apps and something called City ID, and had no third app. The app store guy cited search-funded apps (Opera) and apps that are extensions of PC applications (Skype). The Motorola person, who used to work at Palm, cited two cool old Palm OS developers (SplashData and WorldMate, the latter not even available for Motorola's Android phones). And the Yahoo guy talked about Yahoo-enabled websites.

None of them had the sort of answer that the room was looking for -- what categories of smartphone apps are making it, and what are their business models, so other developers will know what to emulate? I started to laugh at the panelists' obvious discomfort, but then I realized that if I'd been on the panel and had been asked the same question, I would have blown it too. I know of a lot of mobile app companies that aren't making steady money, because they send me e-mails asking for ideas, but I don't seem to hear from the raging successes. Also, because I try to focus on what needs to be fixed in the industry, I'm probably guilty of skewing my posts toward what's not working.

So I did some thinking and a bit of research, and here are my three nominations for categories of non-entertainment mobile apps that are making it, and why. Then I'll open it up to your comments -- I have a feeling you'll have much better answers than me.


1. Vertical-market business applications. This was a good category for PDAs ten years ago, and it's a good category for smartphones today. There are dozens of business verticals where information overload, or an excess of written forms, hinder productivity. Find a way to manage that information electronically, and your application quickly pays for itself in increased productivity.

One example is ePocrates, which gives doctors drug reference, dosing, and interaction information. ePocrates has a beautiful business model in which the drug companies pay to get access to the doctors who use it. That helps the company give away its base product. I have to believe there are other verticals where you could create apps that would act as a middleman between suppliers and users.

Another interesting example, which I ran into at a conference recently, is Corrigo. They do work-order management (stuff like managing a mobile workforce and dispatching them to work sites on the fly). I like Corrigo because it makes good use of mobile technology, and scales nicely to multiple vertical markets.

Note that neither Corrigo nor ePocrates is a purely mobile application -- they are business solutions that leverage mobile. That's very typical of the business mobile market. It's not about being mobile for its own sake, it's about solving a business problem and using mobile technology to help do it.

One other cool thing about these businesses is that you can ignore the whole app store hassle and market them directly to the companies. You control your customer relationships, and you can keep 100% of your revenue.

2. PC compatibility applications. Inevitably some people will need to do on a mobile device the same things that they do on a PC -- edit a document, for example, or query a database. There's a solid market for applications to let the user do that. The market isn't enormous (not everyone is crazy enough to edit a spreadsheet on a screen the size of a Post-It note), but the people who need to do that are usually willing to pay for the apps. Or to make their employers pay for the apps. Documents to Go was probably the most successful application on Palm OS, and based on the stats posted by Apple I think it is probably one of the most lucrative non-entertainment apps on iPhone.

Unfortunately, Docs to Go is also a very well-entrenched application, so good luck displacing it. Maybe you can find another category of PC app that needs a mobile counterpart.

3. Brand extenders. There seems to be a steady market for mobile apps that help a major brand interact with its loyal users. A few recent examples:

• -The Gucci app lets a customer get special offers, play with music, and find travel attractions endorsed by Gucci. The company calls it a "luxury lifestyle application."
• -There are four different Nike iPhone apps: a shoe designer, a women's training guide, a football (soccer) training guide, and an Italian soccer league tracking app.
• -The Target store search app lets you find stores, and search for items within the stores (it'll tell you which aisle to look in). (For those of you outside the US, Target is a large chain of discount department stores.)
• -Magic Coke Bottle is a Coke version of the Magic 8-Ball. It's one of three Coke-branded apps.

The iPhone is the most popular platform for these apps today, although I expect they'll spread to other smartphone platforms over time.

The business model for this one is simple -- you get hired by the brand (or its marketing agency), they pay you to develop the app, and then they give it away. The more popular smartphones become, the more companies feel obligated to create mobile apps, so this is a growing market for now. (Beware, though -- having an iPhone app is kind of a corporate status symbol right now, like creating a corporate podcast was a couple of years ago. Development activity could drop off when businesses find the next trendy tech fad.)

To create this sort of app, you need to be very skilled at visual design, and you need to be comfortable managing custom development projects. Some developers don't have this sort of project and client management skills, and you can get yourself into a lot of trouble if you sign a contract without understanding what'll really be required to execute on it.

Also, you don't get to change the world creating a shopping app for Brand X. But in the right situation this can be a good way to make money while you work on your own killer app on the side. And if you're not into changing the world, there are companies that have built solid ongoing businesses on custom mobile development.


Other possibilities

There are a few of other categories of apps that I think could be candidates for inclusion, but in my opinion the jury is still out on them. I'm interested in what you think:

Location. Right now there are several location and direction apps selling well for iPhone, but with Google making directions free on Android, I fear the third party apps are at risk. However, the direction-finding business is a lot trickier than you'd expect (I learned that as a beta-tester for the Dash navigation system, which sometimes tried to get me to make a right turn by telling me to make three consecutive left turns). So we need to wait and see how good Google's directions are. But in the meantime I don't feel comfortable pointing to this as a viable category in the long term. What do you think?

Travel apps. There was once a very nice business in city guides for PDAs, but I get the sense that like many other categories of mobile apps, this one is being sucked into the free app vortex. But I suspect that there may still be a paid market for specialized tools like translation programs, and software that helps executives manage trips. WorldMate is an interesting example -- the base product is free, but if you pay you get special services.

Upgradeware. Speaking of free base products, I think this is the most intriguing possibility in the whole mobile app business today. In the PC world, there are a lot of app companies that manage to build sustainable businesses by giving away a free base product and then charging you for the advanced version (this is how most of Europe gets its antivirus software today, for example). In mobile this model worked well on Palm, but was not available on iPhone because Apple's terms and conditions prohibited a free application from offering in-app conversion to a paid upgrade. Apple just changed those terms.

Rob at Hobbyist Software asked the other day what I thought about the change. I think it's very long overdue, and I'm intensely interested in hearing from developers who have moved to that model. How's it working out for you?


Okay, so that's my list. If you're scheduled to appear on a panel somewhere, you're welcome to quote from it as needed. But now I'd like to throw the discussion open to you. Please post a comment -- What do you think of my list? And what non-entertainment mobile app categories, and business models, are making good money today, and why?

A web guy and a telecom guy talk about net neutrality

It was a nondescript bar in the American Midwest, the sort of place where working men drop in at the end of the day to unwind before they head home. You wouldn't expect to find two senior business executives there, and as I sat in the empty bar at midday I wondered if maybe my contact had given me a bad lead. But then the door opened and a general manager from one of the leading web companies walked in, followed by a senior VP from one of the US's biggest mobile network operators. I hunched down in the shadows of a corner booth and typed notes quietly as they settled in at the bar.

Bartender: What'll you have?

Telecom executive: Michelob Light.

Web executive: I'll have a Sierra Nevada Kellerweis.

Bartender: Keller-what?

Web executive: Um, Michelob Light.

Telecom executive: Thanks for coming. Did you have any trouble finding the place?

Web executive: All I can say is thank God for GPS. I've never even been on the ground before between Denver and New York.

Telecom executive: I wanted to find someplace nondescript, so we wouldn't be seen together. The pressure from the FCC is bad enough already, without someone accusing us of colluding.

Web executive: No worries, my staff thinks I'm paragliding in Mexico this weekend. What's your cover story?

Telecom executive: Sailboat off Montauk.

Web executive: Sweet. So, you wanted to talk about this data capacity problem you have on your network...

Telecom executive: No, it's a data capacity problem we all have. Your websites are flooding our network with trivia. The world's wireless infrastructure is on the verge of collapse because your users have nothing better to do all day than watch videos of a drunk guy buying beer.

Web executive: Welcome to the Internet. The people rule. If you didn't want to play, you shouldn't have run the ads. Remember the promises you made? "Instantly download files. Browse the Web just like at home. Stream HD videos. Laugh at an online video or movie trailer while travelling in the family car."

Telecom executive: That was our marketing guys. They don't always talk to the capacity planners. Besides, who could have known that the marketing campaign would actually work?

Web executive: Don't look at me. I've never done a marketing campaign in my life. I think you should just blame it on A--

Telecom executive: You promised, no using the A-word.

Web executive: Sorry. But I still don't see why this is a problem. Just add some more towers and servers and stuff.

Telecom executive: It's not that simple. The network isn't designed to handle this sort of data, and especially not at these volumes. Right now our biggest problem is backhaul capacity -- the traffic coming from the cell towers to our central servers. But when we fix that, the cell towers themselves will get saturated. Fix the towers and the servers will fall over somewhere. It's like squeezing a balloon. We have to rebuild the whole network. It's incredibly expensive.

Web executive: So? That's what your users pay you for.

Telecom executive: But most of them are on fixed-rate data plans. So when we add capacity, we don't necessarily get additional revenue. It's all expense and no profit. At some point in the not-too-distant future, we'll end up losing money on mobile data.

Web executive: Bummer.

Telecom executive: More like mortal threat. Fortunately, we've figured out how to solve the problem. The top five percent of our users produce about 50% of the network's total traffic. So we're just going to cap their accounts and charge more when they go over.

Web executive: Woah! Hold on, those are our most important customers you're talking about. You can't just shut them down.

Telecom executive: The hell we can't. They're leeches using up the network capacity that everyone else needs.

Web executive: Consumers will never let you impose caps. You told them they had unlimited data plans, that's the expectation you set. You can't go back now and tell them that their plans are limited. They won't understand -- and they won't forgive you.

Telecom executive: First of all, the plans were never really unlimited in the first place. There's always been fine print.

Web executive: Which no one read.

Telecom executive: Off the record, you may have a point. On the record, the fact is that you can retrain users. Look, you grew up in California, right?

Web executive: What does that have to do with anything?

Telecom executive: Once upon a time, there weren't any water meters in California. Now most of the major cities have them, and they'll be required everywhere in a couple of years. Something that was once unlimited became limited, and people learned to conserve.

Web executive: The difference is, I can read my water meter. You make a ton of money when people exceed their minutes or message limits, and you don't warn them before they do it. If you play the same game with Internet traffic, it'll scare people away from using the mobile web -- or worse yet you'll invite in the government. Look what happened with roaming charges in Europe.

Telecom executive: Jeez, don't even think about that. Okay, so we'll need to add some sort of traffic meter so people will know how much data they're using when they load a page.

Web executive: Great, that'll discourage people from using Yahoo.

Telecom executive: Huh?

Web executive: Oops, did I say that out loud?

Telecom executive: Then there's the issue of dealing with websites and apps that misuse the network.

Web executive: Not this again.

Telecom executive: I'm not talking about completely blocking anything, just prioritizing the traffic a little. Surely you agree that 911 calls should get top priority on the network, right?

Web executive: Of course.

Telecom executive: And that voice calls should take priority over data?

Web executive: I don't know about that.

Telecom executive: Oh come on, what good is a telecom network if you can't make calls on it?

Web executive: (sighs) Yeah, okay.

Telecom executive: So then what's wrong with us prioritizing, say, e-mail delivery over video?

Web executive: Because when you start arbitrarily throttling traffic, I can't manage the user experience. My website will work great on Vodafone's network but not on yours, or my site will work fine on some days and not on others. How do you think the customers will feel about that?

Telecom executive: Not as angry as they will be if the entire network falls over. Listen, we're already installing the software to prioritize different sorts of data packets. We could be throttling traffic today and you wouldn't even know it.

Web executive: But people will eventually figure it out. They'll compare notes on which networks work best and they'll migrate to the ones that don't mess with their applications. Heck, we'll help them figure it out. And if that's not enough, there's always the regulatory option. The Republicans are out of office. They can't protect you on net neutrality any more.

Telecom executive: You think you're better at lobbying the government than we are? We've been doing it for 100 years, pal. Besides, we have a right to protect our network.

Web executive: You mean to protect your own services from competition!

Telecom executive: Parasite!

Web executive: Monopolist!

Telecom executive: That's it! It's go time!

They both stood. The telecom guy grabbed a beer bottle and broke it against the bar, while the web guy raised a bar stool over his head. Then the bartender pulled out a shotgun and pointed it at both of them.

Bartender: Enough! I'm sick of listening to you two. Telecom guy, you're crazy if you think people will put up with someone telling them what they can and can't do on the Internet. The Chinese government can't make that stick, and unlike them you have competitors.

Web executive: See? I told you!

Bartender: Shut up, web guy! You keep pretending that the wireless network is infinite when you know it isn't. If you really think user experience is important, you need to start taking the capabilities of the network into account when you design your apps.

Web executive: Hey, he started it.

Telecom executive: I did not!

Bartender: I don't care who started it! Telecom guy, you need to expose some APIs that will let a website know how much capacity is available at a particular moment, so they can adjust their products. And web guy, you need to participate in those standards and use them. Plus you both need to agree on ways to communicate to a user how much bandwidth they're using, so they can make their own decisions on which apps they want to use. That plus tiered pricing will solve your whole problem.

Telecom executive: Signaling capacity too. Don't forget signaling.

Bartender: That's exactly the sort of detail you shouldn't confuse users with. Work it out between yourselves and figure out a simple way to communicate it to users. Okay?

Web executive: I guess.

Telecom executive: Yeah, okay.

Bartender. Good. Now sit down and start over by talking about something you can cooperate on.

Telecom executive: All right. Hey, what's that guy doing in the corner? Is that a netbook?

Web executive: He's a blogger!

Bartender: There's no blogging allowed in here!

Telecom executive and web executive: Get him!

I ran. Fortunately, the bar had a back door. Even more fortunately, the web guy and the telecom guy got into an argument over who would go through the door first, and I was able to make my escape.

So I don't know how the conversation ended. But I do know that I wish that bartender was running the FCC.

Rodeo Drive Walk of Style honors Grace Kelly and Cartier

Once upon a time, Rodeo Drive, first class shopping, glamour and beauty were synonymous. Well, as I see it, the Rodeo Drive's Walk of Style committee actually did a brilliant job these past few years, reconnecting the present with the past and hopefully bringing the standards up to par again (http://www.rodeodrive-bh.com/index1.html) via the future...

On October 23, 2009, Prince Albert II of Monaco accepted the coveted Rodeo Drive Walk of Style award on his mother's behalf last evening. Grace Kelly's most treasured piece of jewelry was her engagement ring that was created by Cartier.

Demi Moore was dripping in Cartier jewels. I mean she brought on the bling bling - Diamond and onyx hoops, three white gold and diamond link bracelets, and two white and gold diamond Laniere bracelets AND a pave diamond ring! Honey, Demi Moore wore the jewels and the jewels were wearing Demi - both doing each other justice...

As you well know, Grace Kelly was an eloquent woman that brightened up a room when she entered it.

Grace Kelly lived a fairytale life, and placed the thought in so many women's minds that if you dream big, anything is possible - giving them hope.

She was truly an American icon...

After the presentation of the award, the crowd walked over to the Beverly Wilshire, A Four Seasons Hotel to enjoy a nosh at THE BLVD - the shrimp tempura is to die for. Women were wearing their beautiful Cartier jewels and all things sans Cartier.

Cartier Trivia:

Did you know that Cartier was the first designer to have black women walk the catwalk of Paris, France? He even created the two black Panthers insignia, which even later graced his vintage fragrance bottle, Panthère de Cartier, in tribute to the black woman. Yep. Cartier said that black women were so eloquent and lovely on the catwalk. You see, even Cartier knew back then that glamour and beauty crosses every race/creed and color...

The next time you're in Beverly Hills, please make sure you stop by the Beverly Wilshire, A Four Seasons Hotel on Wilshire Blvd. It's the hotel that the movie 'Pretty Woman' was based on and filmed in...C

http://www.fourseasons.com/beverlywilshire/

Fashion Week LA Continues

The Lauren Elaine-Black Label Spring 2010 was eloquent and beautiful.

When I tell you that the fabrics were rich and beautiful lightly beaded, chiffon gowns in different textures and colors, I am speaking the truth!

Theme: Fashion for all seasons. Silks and metallic brocades reminded me the time when fine silks and romance were in Vogue – sort of 1940’s meets the 1960's– I so love those two periods of time in fashion!

My favorites:
Elise Soiree Gown – Taffeta and chiffon gown with ruffle detailing.
The Nightingale Gown – Silk and silk chiffon gown with authentic peacock feathers and extensive braid detailing.
Aphrodite Gown – Silk and silk chiffon gown with Swarovski crystal embellishment, ostrich feathering, and braid detailing.
Serena Gown – Tiered crinkled taffeta gown with Swarovski crystal embellishment, ostrich feathering, and braid detailing.

This designer deserves to be highlighted. She's an amazing visionary with serious talent.
WWW.LAUREN-ELAINEDESIGNS.COM

Fashion Week LA 2009 Continues

Honey, even the rain couldn't keep all of the Fashionistas away from showing up at all of the many runways located all over Los Angeles for FASHIONWEEK LA.

The Nicholas Clements-Lindsey 2010 Spring/Summer collection, The Criminal, showcased at Smashbox Studios in Culver City, CA., and all of the seats were taken.

Stephanie La Rue hosted the event and she was remarkable. She was so brave to discuss the fact that she is in stage 4 of breast cancer. When she walked the cat-walk, she was fierce!

The Spring/Fall 2010 Fashion theme:

Women - Always remember to look/feel/walk/talk confident. The look was sexy alluring and feminine.

Men - Whether you are short, tall, big or small, step like you OWN IT!
The look was get ready for an afternoon in Boston/New York/San Francisco.
Nicholas Clements-Lindsey's Inspiration: Edith Head, Valentino Garavani and Oscar de la Renta , Alberta Ferretti and André Leon Talley, and

Hubert de Givenchy http://www.wmagazine.com/fashion/2008/03/givenchy.
This man stands alone on the mountain top!
Enough said - okay?

...There was a man sitting one isle over and up from me and I heard him say to the man sitting across from him, "Man, good to see you - hell, those shoes rock!" I glanced over to see who he was referring to just to discover that it was Jheri Walker Jr., http://www.myspace.com/datsjheri who was on American Idol '07, and is busy with his own clothing line and currently sponsored by Kashi - gear that kicks http://kashikicks.com/ ...

The models in the this show were Stunning - just to name a few - Spanky, Jessica De Soto and Justin Shaw - you all were VOGUE!

Nicholas Clements- Lindsey - http://www.nclcouture.com/ - Hats off to you for a job well done!

Tomorrow's featured Designer - Lauren Elaine - Black Label, Spring 2010 - 100% handmade in the USA - www.LAUREN-ELAINEDESIGNS.COM

Reminder to all: October is Breast Cancer Awareness Month

C

Fashion Week LA - October 12-20 2009

Okay all of you Fashionistas it's Fashion Week in
Los Angeles!

Yes, it's time to get your PDA's out and connect the dots.

Go to www.fashionweekla.com to find out the details...

I was so exited to get invited to some of the hottest shows that are planned for the week! You'll get a chance to see what's hot for the Spring 2010 Collections.

October 12, 2009
FASHION GROUP INTERNATIONAL of Los Angeles is getting things started! They are having an event that starts at 6:30pm VIP admission. 7:30pm general admission. Fashion Week kick-off reception with designers and their celebrity muses. It's a kick off party A fundraiser for the Fashion Group International of LA Foundation’s Scholarship Fund. It's at the Standard Hotel in Downtown Los Angeles.

Ticket information at www.fgila.org or 323.687.4131

October 13, 2009

EMERGING DESIGNERS & FASHION ANGELS AWARDS @ 5pm. Winners Phong Hong, Fernanda Carniero, Jacquetta O’Dell & Leslie Henry. Presented by the Department of Cultural Affairs of the City of Los Angeles.Tickets $15. www.downtownlafashionweek.com

JULIA Y RENATA. Spring 2010. Downtown LA Fashion Week.7:30pm. Invite only. www.downtownlafashionweek.com
HOT RIOT LA. Multeepurpose, Livity Outernational and Clementiny Clothing Spring 2010 Collections. 9pm (8pm doors open). Ticketed. www.hotriot.la
LOUVER Collection by designer LOUIS VERDAD. Downtown LA Fashion Week.9pm. Invite only. www.louisverdaddesigner.com
HitWEEK through Oct 18 Italian pop culture festival - Ticketed event. http://www.hitweek.it

October 14, 2009

CUSTO BARCELONA. Spring 2010. Downtown LA Fashion Week.7pm. Invite only. www.custo-barcelona.com
DAVID ALEXANDER Love me if you Dare Summer 2010 Collection.7pm. LA Fashion on Broadway. www.davidalexanderfashion.com
EM & CO and Kimberly Cole Present UP NEXT: EMERGING LA DESIGNERS.7pm-11pm. Featuring Queenie4ever and Venti Due.www.emandco.com
YOTAM SOLOMON. Meet & Greet & Presentation. Downtown LA Fashion Week.7-10pm. Invite only. www.yotamsolomon.com
NICHOLAS CLEMENTS-LINDSEY. Criminal Spring/Summer 2010.8pm. Invite only. www.NCLCouture.com

Thursday, October 15, 2009

Actress Maria Bello is receiving The Los Angeles Spirit Award at the Vintage Valentino Runway Show - DOWNTOWN LA FASHION WEEK

The Paper Bag Princess, Founded by Elizabth Mason www.thepaperbagprincess.com and underwritten by 1stdibs.com - the closing night gala runway show for Downtown LA Fashion Week, taking place at The Geffen Contemporary at MOCA on Thursday, October 15. Tickets are still available.

Los Angeles is the Fashion capital of the world. Come back and see what's new!

C

Alfred Nobel - Creavit et promovit - "He created and promoted."

This morning President Obama found out that he was a Nobel Prize Laureate. 1 of over 800 since 1901. In 1895, Alfred Nobel wrote his last will, leaving the vast majority of his wealth to the establishment of the Nobel Prize.

A historical perspective of Mr. Alfred Nobel

Mr. Alfred Nobel, was born in Stockholm, Sweden in 1833 into a family of engineers. He descended from none other than Olof Rudbeck, the best-known technical genius of Sweden's 17th century era as a Great Power in Northern Europe. Alfred's Mother, Andriette (maiden name, Ahlsell) Nobel was the daughter of an accountant.

It made no difference because the same year that Alfred was born, his father, Immanuel Nobel, went bankrupt for the first time, in 1833. Four years later, Immanuel Nobel, established a mechanical workshop in St. Petersburg, Russia, leaving his family behind in Sweden. Alfred was four years old, but Immanuel Nobel needed to provide funds to support his family of six.
Immanuel Nobel's company flourished for a while during The Crimean War (1853 - 1856). Then war ended and the Russian military cancelled their orders, thus causing his father, Immanuel Nobel's company to go belly up, thus the second time that his father went bankrupt.

By then, Alfred was twenty years old. Alfred had studied abroad. He was smart and truly trying to figure out how to save the family. He and his brothers spoke five different languages fluently, having studied in Italy, Germany, France and the United States and were determined to survive and thrive.

Well, Alfred desperately sought out new products to sell in order to make it do what it do.

During those rough times, Alfred's chemistry Professor, Nikolai Zinin, reminds him of the Italian student of Pelouze, Ascanio Sobrero, who had discovered a new explosive called pyroglycerine(nitroglycerine). Now, according to a memorial address by Tore Frängsmyr (The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, 26 March 1996), Professor Zinin poured a few drops of the fluid on an anvil, then hit it with a hammer, producing a loud bang. The only problem was that the hammer exploded too! They soon realized that the explosive was too difficult to control - but Alfred and his crew eventually worked it out.

That put the Nobel family back on the block again!

In 1863, Nobel got patents for nitroglycerin(blasting oil) and a detonator (blasting cap). With the help of his father and his brother, after many explosions, got a patent for datomaceous earth - dynamite.
At one point, Alfred's father, Immanuel Nobel became a bit delusional and wanted to take credit for all of Alfred's accomplishments with nitroglycerin, but got a rude awakening when Alfred wrote to his father, letting him know that he'd better wake up and smell the coffee - You see, Alfred Nobel was not the one! He told his father to cut that none sense out, especially since his father's track history had shown that he was famous for bad timing and losing the family fortune, despite the fact that Andriette Nobel kicked in to help the family out. This woman, Alfred's Mom, was a gifted woman, even taking it upon herself to run a milk and vegetable shop while taking care of the children during those rough days. Well, need less to say, Immanuel Nobel had the nerve to imply that he was the one to spear head the nitroglycerine experiments, trying to take the credit for Alfred's hard work. Oh, Alfred wrote one stern letter to his father, Immanuel. And guess what? Immanuel Nobel saw the light and corrected his errors and got with Alfred's program. Unfortunately, his brother Emil and four other people got blown up in one of their experiments.
Ironically, orders started rolling in for the explosives. I mean, everybody wanted some of what blew up the laboratory because, hey, they knew that it worked!

The Nobels' opens labs in Stockholm, Sweden, Hamburg, Germany, United States, Scotland, UK and Paris, France. Mr. Nobel and his family, like the American television show from the 1970's, The Jeffersons, the Nobels' "moved on up!" Again. As the song goes, "Beans don't burn in the kitchen..." You know the rest of the song...Oh, Alfred Nobel was so happy - he bought a lovely home smack dead in the middle of Paris with his new found wealth! He also purchased a home in San Remo, Italy and his native land, Stockholm, Sweden.

The Senior Nobels' got a chance to reap the benefits of having their sons study mathematics, chemistry and foreign languages. Immanuel passed at the ripe age of seventy-one. Alfred loved his Mother, always returning to Stockholm, Sweden for her birthday - never missing one birthday. Ms. Andriette lived to the grand age of eighty-five.

Alfred Nobel was a scientist, inventor, entrepreneur, author and pacifist. But he also knew the value of the Kronor (or in our case, the mighty dollar) and learned how to roll with the punches that life had dealt him. As a result, he invested his money wisely and made sure that every Kronor counted.

Let's fast forward.

Alfred Nobel's health started to fail him and the reason was two fold; he didn't trust anyone to run his business, but at the same time, couldn't be in all places at one time. Let's face it, Alfred Nobel was always putting out fires and cleaning up laboratories that had experienced accidental explosions - all a part of the nature of the business that he was in - seemed like all the time. Right?
So, he writes his will, changing it a few times, but ultimately ended up bequeathing sums of money to his relatives and other people close to him, leaving the vast majority of his wealth to "...those who, during the preceding year, shall have conferred the greatest benefit to mankind." Alfred Nobel died peacefully on December 10, 1896, at the age of 63, in San Remo, Italy.

Continuing down to this very day, President Barack Obama is attempting to put America, the beautiful, back on track, one day at a time, thus making " the greatest benefit to mankind."
(researched from http://nobelprize.org/)

Celebrating 250 years of Wedgwood @ GEARYS Beverly Hills, Oct. 7, 2009

This evening there were so many people gathered to celebrate Wedgwood's 250th anniversary - an English Classic established by Josiah Wedgwood, in 1759.
It was a wonderful opportunity to enjoy a rare appearance by Lord Piers Wedgwood, Brand Ambassador - http://www.wedgwoodusa.com/about/events.asp - partake in the hospitality of GEARYS Beverly Hills and support Childrens Hospital Los Angeles - www.childrenshospitalla.org - all in one fabulous evening.

There is nothing more exciting then shopping for an excellent cause.
Just imagine walking through the doors of GEARYS Beverly Hills - www.gearys.com - and everywhere you look there is the most luxurious crystal, china, silver and fine jewelry in the world. Yes Darling, I said fine jewelry...

Let's stay focused - tonight was dedicated to fine China.

GEARYS Beverly Hills donated 10% of the proceeds to Childrens Hospital Los Angeles.
Childrens Hospital Los Angeles performs nearly 14,100 pediatric surgeries a year, including more complex surgical procedures than any other hospital in Southern California and operates one of the largest dedicated neonatal/pediatric transport programs in the nation; it annually triages more than 3,000 patients.

Their Mission: To make a world of difference in the lives of children, adolescents and their families by integrating medical care, education and research to provide the highest quality care and service to our diverse community.

If you can, pop on over to GEARYS Beverly Hills tomorrow, Wednesday, October 7, 2009, from 1pm - 4pm and pick up something lovely - for a great cause!

Yes, Lord Piers Wedgwood, Brand Ambassador, GEARYS Beverly Hills and Childrens Hospital Los Angeles all feel the need to help others. They have all taken the route of "starting with the man in the mirror..." to make a difference, everyday.
Will you join them?

Is Apple too powerful?

The new iPod nano is a tour de force, the Swiss Army Knife of mobile entertainment. I'm sure there's some obscure gadget from Japan that packs more features per cubic millimeter, but I've never heard of it, and chances are neither have you. This one's a major consumer product, just in time for stimulating the economy this holiday season. Speaking as a technophile, I want one of the new nanos for the same reason I want a Dremel with 300 different bits: just because.

I'm also impressed by the new price point on the iPod Touch. Apple frequently overhypes its announcements, but the $199 price point in the US truly is a milestone that should lead to much higher sales. The improvements to iTunes and the App Store look promising as well, and I'm especially intrigued by Apple's effort to make paid apps more prominent. More on that in a future post.

But the thing that surprised me the most about Apple's announcement wasn't the features of the new products, or the absence of a tablet or an iPhone Lite. It was something Steve Jobs said when he talked about the video camera in the nano:

"We've seen video explode in the last few years," he said, showing a picture of a Flip video camera. "Here's one, a very popular one, four gigabytes of memory, $149, and this market has really exploded, and we want to get in on this."

Think about that for a minute. "There's a big new market, and we want in." Not, "we're creating something new" or "we can vastly improve this category." Just, "we want a cut."

It sounds like something Don Corleone would say. Or Steve Ballmer. But it's not what I expected from Apple.

Now, it's logical for Apple to put video cameras into iPods. A friend of mine worked at one of the companies producing cameras-on-a-chip, and he's passionate about the potential for building vision into every consumer product. It's not just an imaging issue; when the device can see the user, you can create all sorts of interesting gesture-based controls that don't require you to ever even touch the device. Instead of point and click, the interface is just...point.

So it's been inevitable that video cameras would eventually be built into things like the nano. For Pure Digital, the makers of the Flip, this ought to be a tough but normal competitive challenge. The first step is to make sure your camera works better than theirs (check). Next, since music players are becoming cameras, you might want to build a camera that can also play music.

But that's where the situation becomes abnormal. Because even though Pure Digital was recently purchased by Cisco, giving it almost limitless financial resources, it's more or less impossible for its products to become equivalent to the iPods as music players. Not because they can't play music, but because they aren't allowed to seamlessly sync with the iTunes music application.

The issue of access to iTunes has already been simmering in the background between Apple and Palm, with Palm engineering the Pre to access the full functionality of iTunes, Apple blocking that access, and Palm breaking back in. To date I've viewed it as kind of an amusing sideshow, and I didn't really care who won. I figured the folks at Palm had plenty of time in the past to build their own music management ecosystem, but they (including me) didn't bother, so there wasn't any particular moral reason why they should have access to Apple's system.


Apple the predator

The situation with Pure Digital is vastly different, in my opinion. Pure Digital pioneered the market for simple video cameras. It identified an opportunity no one else had seen, and built that market from scratch. In a declining economy, it created new jobs and new wealth, and made millions of consumers happy. It's incredibly difficult to get a new hardware startup funded in Silicon Valley, let alone make it successful. For the good of the economy, we ought to be encouraging more companies like Pure Digital to exist.

But there's no way for a small startup like that to also create a whole music ecosystem equivalent to iTunes. Yes, third party products can access iTunes music. But not as seamlessly as Apple's own products, and as we've seen over and over in the mobile market, small differences in usability can make a big difference in sales. So Apple gets a unique advantage in the video camera market not because it makes a better camera, but because it can connect its camera more easily to a proprietary music ecosystem.

In other words, iTunes is no longer just a tool for Apple to defend its iPod sales; it's now a tool to help Apple take over new markets.

In the legal system they call this sort of thing "tying," and it is sometimes illegal. For decades, Apple complained that Microsoft competed unfairly by tying its products together -- Office works best with Windows, Microsoft's file formats are often proprietary so you can't easily create a substitute for their apps, and so on. I was heavily involved in the Apple-Microsoft lawsuits when I worked at Apple in the 1990s, so I know how passionately we believed that Microsoft's tactics were not just unethical, but also harmful to computer users and the overall economy.

So it's very disappointing to see Apple using tactics it once bitterly denounced, and declaring that it's decided to take over a market because "we want to get in." If Apple can use iTunes as a weapon against Pure Digital and Palm, what's to stop it from rolling up every new category of mobile entertainment product? Where's the incentive for other companies to invest?

I saw first-hand the stifling effect that Microsoft and Intel's duopoly control had on personal computer innovation. PC hardware companies learned not to bother with new features, because Microsoft and Intel would insist that anything new they created be made available to every other cloner. And software investments were restrained by the belief that Microsoft would use its leverage to take over any new application category that was developed.


Good fences make good neighbors

There's a danger that Apple's behavior will have the same chilling effect in mobile electronics. So I believe Apple should allow any device to sync with iTunes content, the same as an iPod. But not because it's morally right or even because it's legally required, but because it's the best thing to do for Apple. Here's why:

The two biggest threats to a very successful company are complacency and consistency. Complacency is more common -- a company that's very successful starts to relax and loses the hunger and drive that made it a winner. I think we can safely assume that won't happen to Apple as long as Steve is around. But the second risk, consistency, is more insidious -- behavior that's appropriate and accepted for a spunky startup gets punished when a big company does it.

This is what tripped up Microsoft. The same aggressiveness that served it well against IBM got it a series of lawsuits and intense government scrutiny a decade later. Even though Microsoft eventually won those suits, its execs were distracted for years, and it was forced to dramatically change its behavior. It has never been the same company since. I think Microsoft would have been much better off had it proactively adjusted its own behavior just enough to pre-empt legal action.

That's where Apple is today. It has to realize that it's no longer the underdog. It's the dominant company in mobile entertainment, and the fastest-growing major firm in mobile phones. It's already under a lot of legal scrutiny for the way it manages the iPhone App Store. If it also leverages iTunes to take out small competitors, and especially if it's dumb enough to say things like "we want in," it will guarantee unfriendly attention from government regulators -- a group of people who actually have more power to hurt Apple than do most of its competitors.

The Obama administration in the US is making noises about enforcing competition law more vigorously, and look at how the EU is picking on details in the Oracle-Sun merger, allegedly to protect local companies (link). If they'll do all that to help SAP and Bull, what will they do to protect Nokia?

Apple, you don't need the special connection with iTunes to keep on winning. You've already proven that you're much better at systems design than almost any other company on Earth. The huge iPhone apps base is exclusive to you, and that won't change. By opening up iTunes, you take away an easy excuse for regulators to pick apart your business, a process that would be distracting, expensive, and could result in much more dramatic restrictions on your actions.

Ease up a little on the gas pedal, Steve. It's the best way to keep moving fast.